There has been lots of talk recently with Kyle Turris and his contract that is up at the end of this year. The last I heard Turris was wanting at least 6x6, maybe more in terms of cash. Turris has been criminally underpaid making only 3.5 million per year for the past 5 seasons. According to Corsica.hockey over the last 3 seasons, for Sens forwards with at least 500 minutes played, Turris ranked 6th in Points per 60 (P/60) with 1.61, 10th in CF% with 49.3, and 9th in CF%QoC (Quality of Competition) with 49.99%. He also posted 64 goals for 149 points in 217 games [0.69PPG(NICE)]. Also a picture of Turris hero chart, he’s been closer to an average 2nd line centre than a first one, which seems about accurate. His stats don’t look very flashy, but he is a solid player.
However, the Sens have some big pay raises coming up and Turris future is a little uncertain, with that in mind let's break down all the possible options for the Sens and Turris.
I looked at a few of Turris comparables, and there are a few more for sure around the league you can look at, but over the last 3 seasons, 2 of Turris’s comparables have been Nazem Kadri and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. All 3 have had 1.6 P/60, all have around 50CF% and all have similar CF%QoC. Another comparable is teammate Derrick Brassard, although Brassard has been slightly better for the past 3 seasons combined I threw him in anyways. So let's look at their contracts.
As you can see, the list of comparables don’t seem great for what Turris is asking for. Turris is older than anyone else signing their deals and wants either more term or money than almost all of them. I do think that Kadri is on a very good deal, but still. So what should he get? There is NO doubt in my mind if he hits the free market he can make 6x6 easy. Maybe even 7 mil a year, but that doesn’t mean it is smart to sign him to that. I honestly think the fairest deal would be Brassards, 5 years isn’t too long but not short either, and 5 mil is a fair price for a decent 2nd line centre. He is not going to be improving anymore, as he is pretty much done his prime, but should still be a solid player for a while. So what are the options facing the Sens?
Let Him Walk
This may be the most likely option, there is a chance the Sens just can’t resign him. After all, you can only really commit to 5, maybe 6 guys long term (6+ years). Those guys for the Sens are (unfortunately) Phaneuf and Ryan. Probably Hoffman too you would assume. Along with Karlsson and Stone rounding out the top 5, and maybe Brassard? Is there room for Turris? Definitely not if he wants a big contract. One of the Sens options may be to just go for it this season, and at the end of the year if Turris and the Sens still are nowhere near a deal they may just have to let him walk. This is obviously not ideal as you do lose a big asset for nothing, but sometimes it is the price you pay to try for a playoff run (See the Caps this year). It is quite possible the Sens see Turris just walk after this season, which would be fine if it means they went on a playoff run again.
Trade Him At The Deadline
To me this is probably the smartest but most unlikely option. Now before you start yelling, if the Sens are in a playoff spot or around 3 points out of one at the trade deadline I think you just keep Turris, but if the Sens are anywhere more than say 5 points out of a WC spot I see no reason to keep him. If they are in a position where it looks more likely they will not be making playoffs OR not making much of a run if they do make playoffs it is smart to try and get as much as you can for good assets like Turris. You can get a decent haul for a legit #2 centre, and I think most teams would like to add a solid centreman. The team I think makes the most sense is the Pittsburgh Penguins. If they get an elite 3C (because Crosby and Malkin obviously) in Kyle Turris their depth suddenly looks very good again, and Turris contract is dirt cheap which is great for a team like the Pens. They also have some decent prospects, including in net, which is something Ottawa could use. Another few teams may be Washington, Montreal (HIGHLY unlikely), Edmonton (If Draisaitl keeps playing wing), Calgary, and the Rangers are all teams that could use some centre depth, a few of them could be very scary with some depth down the middle. Again, I think this is the smartest option if a decent deal is there and the Sens look like they are outside of the playoff picture this year.
Trade Him For Another Asset
Honestly, I do not see this happening so I will only say a few words on it. Maybe he can be a piece in a trade to pick up a guy like say Duchene? I just don’t really know why the Avs would want him or how that makes any sense, so it is more of a wild thought than anything else, but who knows. Subban got traded one for one for Weber so anything can happen.
Keep Him and Resign Him
The last option would be to just keep him and resign him. Now I like Turris, but this can only be possible if he agrees to a team friendly deal. Again I think 5x5 would be an alright deal, but even that can be risky with Stone and Karlsson and Brassard coming up. The other guy up this season is Cody Ceci. That should be VERY interesting what their plans are for him and could affect Turris. If Ottawa makes a silly choice and throws money at Ceci it may drive Turris out of town just because they can’t afford him, but we will see. If the Sens can get him 5 mil or under for 5 years or less I think it is an alright option.
I think no matter what the Sens probably should be fine, if you resign him sweet. If not it gives a spot for someone else to step up, whether that be Pageau, Brown, or White. Although Pageau as 2C seems much more likely, it does give a shot to young guys in the organization to hopefully get some playing time. Ideally I would like to get some assets back for him, but only if it makes sense to get rid of him. I would also be fine if the Sens keep him and lose him to FA, if they make a playoff run, that is the way the business goes sometimes. The only way I really see the Sens losing this is if they resign him for way too much. What do you think? Do you think the Sens should resign him? If so for how much? Let me know either here or on twitter (@nhlsensandstuff)! It should be interesting to see how Dorion and the Sens management handles this whole situation.
My name is Alex, this is my page, all thoughts are mine and feel free to comment on what you think! Enjoy!